TFM Sunrise Update June 28, 2019


Corn futures were mixed overnight. Look for steady price action in front of today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report. Dec corn has found slumped back to the 4.50 price level heading into the report with a contract high up at 4.73 set up as a bullish target. Near term support is situated at 4.45-3/4. The 6 to 10 day outlook continues to look warm and moist. With both above normal in temperature and rainfall today. The quarterly stocks average estimate is 5.308 bil bu, near last year’s figure of 5.305 bil. The acreage estimate is 83.03 mil, which compares to 92.8 on March 29, and the most recent figure of near 89.6.


Soybean futures were firm overnight with contracts up 1 to 3 cents. Pre-report estimates have quarterly stocks at 1.856 bil, and this would compare to last June’s 1.219 bil. Acreage is estimated at 84.59 mil, the same as the March estimate. Trade focus in also centered on President Trump’s trip to the G20 meeting where he and Chinese President Xi will meet. Meanwhile, though warm and moist, the 7 day forecast appears dry enough to allow most growers a chance to finish up soybean planting.


Wheat futures traded 5 to 5 cents lower overnight. All wheat acres are expected to come in at 45.67 mil in today’s report, down from last year’s 47.8 mil. The focus will be on weather for harvest in the U.S., along with dry conditions in Canada and Europe.


Cattle futures are called steady. Look for continued consolidation with the market trying to find a bottom highlighted by a reversal in price direction spurred by optimism over trade talks with China. Seller asking prices of $112 were ignored as packers hope the rally is short lived. Packers are purchasing for a holiday shortened week but pent up cook out demand, caused by a late summer warm up in much of the nation, will likely help underpin beef sales and box prices.


Hog futures are called mixed. The Hog and Pigs report showed a higher than expected March-May pig crop and daily slaughter numbers remain more than ample. However, volatility has been high and yesterday’s strong turnaround suggests prices may be trying to move higher, particularly with strong shipments to China and news of China shying away from Canadian pork.



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