TFM Sunrise Update June 4, 2019


Corn futures resumed market strength overnight following a surprisingly low planting progress pace. The trade was looking for closer to 70% of the crop to be seeded, but only 67% was reported yesterday afternoon by USDA. Anything under 70% was to be considered bullish. Dec corn surged 11 cents to 4.53-1/4. Producers likely made good progress yesterday and perhaps will again today, but conditions as reported by many who are planting are not ideal. Rain in the forecast for the southern half of the Midwest could put many up to the point of throwing into the towel and take prevent plant. Emergence is also indicating the crop well behind schedule at 46% vs a 5-year average of 84%.


Soybean futures were up as much as 15-1/2 cents overnight with only 39% of the crop planted vs a 5-year average of 79%. Last week’s figure was 29%. Nov beans peaked at 9.21-1/2, the highest level in more than a month for that contract. Obviously, there has not been very much progress for a full week and now farmers will have to scramble to catch up with beans as well. Rain in the forecast for the southern half of the Midwest could be viewed as supportive.


Wheat futures took out yesterday’s session highs overnight before retreating 5 to 7 cents and are called today. Winter wheat ratings were expected to go down but showed the good-to-excellent category at 62% vs 61% last week. Spring wheat planting is 93% complete vs a 5-year average of 96%. Concerns of wet weather delaying harvest could be supportive.


Cattle futures are looking at an uneven start to today’s session. Prices have been under pressure as of late as traders have been exiting long livestock positions and purchasing grains. June closed lower for the third day in a row on Monday and at its lowest point since May 18 of 2018. Talk that Brazil would suspend beef exports to China due to Mad Cow could put U.S. futures on the offensive.


Hog futures are called steady to lower on follow through. Despite additional cases of ASF noted elsewhere in the world, prices continue to remain under pressure on ample inventories and tensions stemming from the trade wars with Mexico and China.



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