This Week in Commodities 02-03-2023

Corn Futures Mixed this Week Again

  • March CBOT corn futures shed 5-1/2 cents this week to close at 677-1/2
  • December CBOT corn futures added 8-3/4 cents this week to close at 596
  • New crop December of 2023 corn futures shed 20 cents in the month of January to settle at 590-3/4
  • US corn areas experiencing drought and as of January 31st was approximately 45%, this is down from 71% in October
  • It was yet another relatively quiet week in the corn market as traders wait for news on the progression of Brazil’s second crop corn planting, while continuing to monitor US ethanol and export demand
  • After attempting to move lower to start the week, the US Dollar Index moved sharply higher to finish the week on a much stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll number. A stronger dollar is typically a headwind for commodities, although that was not the case late in 2022, as the dollar traded to multi-decade highs

Soybeans Move Higher on Gains in Soybean Meal

  • March CBOT soybean futures added 22-1/2 cents this week to close at 1532
  • November CBOT soybean futures added 18-1/2 cents this week to close at 1369-3/4
  • New crop November of 2023 soybean futures shed 53-3/4 cents in the month of January to settle at 1363
  • Soybean harvest in Brazil was 5% completed near the end of January, this is one percent behind the five-year average and well below last year’s 11% complete for the same date
  • USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destination in the 2023/24 marketing year
  • Dryness in Argentina continues to provide underlying support to the soybean market. The weather forecast for Argentina over the next two weeks continues to look mostly dry with scattered rain events in the second week of the forecast


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Wheat prices Inch Higher

  • March CBOT wheat futures added 6-3/4 cents this week to close at 756-3/4
  • March KCBOT wheat futures added 3-3/4 cents this week to close at 873
  • March MGEX spring wheat futures were unchanged this week to close at 921-1/2
  • US winter wheat areas experiencing drought as of January 31st was approximately 58%, this is down from 75% in November
  • March CBOT wheat pushed up to its highest level since January 4th this week, wheat ran into resistance at the 50-day moving average and may face headwinds from a strong US dollar moving forward

Strong Week For the Dairy Spot Market

There was a noticeable shift in the dairy spot trade this week as buyers finally started getting aggressive at these discounted prices. For the week, whey recovered 8.75c, butter added 10.25c, and powder gained 9.25c. There was steady buying across the board each session. The cheese market was pretty quiet, however, falling 0.875c overall and closing at $1.7475/lb for the week. Cheese had been the only product not in a strong downtrend, though. Dairy futures reacted positively to the strength in the spot trade and milk futures started working higher off of recent lows. Second month Class III finished the week 32c off of the low, while second month Class IV finished up 55c overall and up 70c from the low. News this week was quiet, but next week will have both a Global Dairy Trade auction and an exports report on Tuesday.


Keegan Madigan

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