This Week in Commodities 04-14-2023

China Back Buying US Corn

  • May CBOT corn futures added 22-3/4 cents this week to close at 666-1/4.
  • New crop December 2023 CBOT corn futures added 3-1/4 cents this week to close at 560.
  • Continuous front month corn futures surged higher this week erasing the losses from last week and closed Friday at their highest level since late February.
  • The USDA on both Thursday and Friday confirmed sales of corn for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years to China.
  • Chinese Dalian May corn futures to end last week traded to an eight-month low, futures are currently trading about 3% below levels seen in mid-April of 2022.
  • With favorable weather US corn plantings should have made strong progress in southern regions this week.

Soybeans Close Back Above $15

  • May CBOT soybean futures added 8 cents this week to close at 1500-1/2.
  • New crop November of 2023 CBOT soybean futures shed 8-1/4 cents this week to close at 1301-1/2.
  • China imported 6.85 million tons of soybean in March of 2023 according to Chinese customs data, this was up 8% from last year and puts the quarter one total soybean imports for 2023 at a record, up 13.5% from last year.
  • This week, the Rosario grain exchange cut its Argentina soybean estimate again, this time down to 23 million tons due to historic drought. The USDA estimated Argentina’s soybean crop at 27 million tons this week.
  • The May to November soybean spread closed this week at $2 per bushel highlighting the tightness in US old crop inventories. A continued steady drop in the US dollar has also helped support soybean futures.

Spring Wheat and KC Futures Shoot Higher on Friday

  • May CBOT wheat futures added 7 cents this week to close at 682-1/2.
  • May KCBOT wheat futures added 14-1/4 cents today to close at 878-3/4.
  • May MGEX spring wheat futures added 4-1/4 cents today to close at 876-1/4.
  • After trading lower all but one day so far in the month of April, spring wheat futures found life today trading sharply higher to end the week.
  • Russia is indicating that there will be no extension of the UN brokered Black Sea grain deal past May 18th unless the West removes a series of obstacles to the export of Russia grain and fertilizers.

Milk Gives Up Midweek Gains

  • Following through on yesterday’s losses, Class III and IV futures were again under selling pressure, with many Class III contracts giving up midweek gains.
  • CME cash barrels were extremely active with 70 loads traded, the most active week of trading since 6/30/2018.
  • CME cash whey followed barrels with heavy selling throughout the week, 47 loads traded during the most active week of trade since 1/11/2020.
  • US weekly dairy cow culling for the week ending 4/1 was up 9.5% YoY as cattle and beef supplies continue to be tight and prices great.

Author

Keegan Madigan

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