This Week in Commodities 07-21-2023

Corn Holds onto Weekly Gains

  • September CBOT corn futures added 20-1/2 cents this week to close at 527.
  • December CBOT corn futures added 22-1/4 cents this week to close at 536-1/4.
  • While triple digit temps in portions of the Corn Belt may hurt the last fields to pollinate a bulk of pollination was able to take place under favorable conditions. Outlooks past the next 10-days are calling for a moderation of temperatures and improved chances for precipitation.
  • The August forecast from the National Weather Service calls for increased chances for above-normal precipitation and below normal to normal temperatures for the bulk of the Midwest which should help the corn crop during grain fill.
  • Corn yields out of Brazil continue to impress, in Mato Grosso average yields are expected to top 106 bushels per acre which would be a record statewide. Prices remain poor and have in turn limited farmer selling. Current corn prices are near $3 per bushel in Mato Grosso.

Soybeans Continue March Higher

  • August CBOT soybean futures added 20-3/4 cents this week to close at 1501.
  • November CBOT soybean futures added 31 cents this week to close at 1401-3/4.
  • The continued rally in soybean oil futures continues to have a spill over strength benefit to the soybean market. From their May low front month soybean oil futures have rallied about 50%.
  • NOPA Members crushed 165 million bushels of soybeans during June, which was down 7.2% from May and the lowest level since September 2022.
  • Brazil’s grain production is expected to grow by 24% in the next ten years according to a recent study by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture. Over 36 million acres of degraded pastures are expected to be converted to row crop production over the coming decade with 78% of the average expansion expected to be devoted to soybean production.

Wheat Higher on the Week as Black Sea Tensions Rise

  • Septebmer CBOT wheat futures added 36 cents this week to close at 697-1/2.
  • September KCBOT wheat futures added 31-1/4 cents this week to close at 860-1/4.
  • September MGEX spring wheat futures added 2-3/4 cents this week to close at 887.
  • Despite continued attacks on Ukraine wheat prices traded sharply lower in the overnight and were unable the shake the selling in the daily session.
  • The US Dollar Index posted strong gains this week after recent weakness, the stronger trade in the dollar likely helped add pressure to wheat to end the week.

Follow Through Buying Surges Dairy Prices

  • Milk surged for the second straight day with 1,468 contracts trading Friday in the second month Class III contract.
  • Spot barrels were bid up 7 cents with no offers, sellers have taken a bullish tone with more possible upward price momentum next week.
  • The spot butter price closed at a 2023 high, settling Friday’s trade at $2.5825/lb.
  • This week’s GDT Index fell, milk production stagnant YoY on a declining herd, Cattle on Feed showed YoY inventories down and placements up.


Keegan Madigan

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