September CBOT corn futures shed 6 cents this week to close at 521.
December CBOT corn futures shed 6 cents this week to close at 530-1/4.
After following wheat prices higher to start the week, corn futures faced sellers to end the week closing below key support levels of the 50 and 100-day moving averages.
Late-week weather models show next week’s heat staying in the Southern Plains rather than the western Corn Belt, this should allow for ridge-riding storms to pop up in the Midwest.
59% of US corn-producing areas are experiencing drought according to this week’s drought monitor, this is up 4% from last week and the worst since 2012.
Soybeans Stumble Near Contract Highs
September CBOT soybean futures added 4 cents this week to close at 1433.
November CBOT soybean futures shed 19-1/4 cents this week closing at 1382-1/2.
This week November soybeans were within 13-1/4 cents of the contact high but weakness to end the week put futures back below the $14 level resulting in technically poor weekly price action.
First support on a break lower in November soybeans should come in at the 200-day moving average near the 1335 level.
New crop soybeans had three separate daily flash sales to unknown destinations this week but current 2023/24 marketing year sales are still nearly 60% behind last year’s pace.
Many private crop estimating firms continue to leave US soybean yield unchanged from early season estimates with a lack of significant weather threats in past weeks or in forecast outlooks. August CPC outlooks are calling for below-normal temperatures in the western Midwest and above-normal precipitation in the southern Midwest.
Wheat Mixed on the Week
CBOT September wheat futures added 6-3/4 cents this week to close at 704-1/4.
KCBOT September wheat futures shed 4 cents this week to close at 856-1/4.
MGEX September spring wheat futures added 14-3/4 cents this week to close at 901-3/4.
The Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durum Tour concluded Thursday in Fargo. The tour is estimating US spring wheat yield of 47.4 bpa, last year the tour found a yield of 49.1 bpa.
Weekend news out of the Black Sea region will be watched closely by the trade for direction of the Sunday night open.
A sharp reversal higher in the US Dollar Index in the last two weeks has added pressure to the wheat complex.
Weekly Dairy Trade Mixed, Up Overall
The spot cheese trade stalled mid-week but was higher on the week overall, the block/barrel average up over 11 cents per pound on the week.
Cold storage from earlier in the week showed strong growth in butter inventories and overall cheese inventories lower than last year.
Regional cheese reports offer bullish support of prices stating milk availability tightening with strong demand for cheese.
Dairy cow culling continues at strong rates YoY, with the week ending 7/15 up 7.5% from last year.
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