This Week in Commodities 07-28-2023

Corn Closes Below Key Support

  • September CBOT corn futures shed 6 cents this week to close at 521.
  • December CBOT corn futures shed 6 cents this week to close at 530-1/4.
  • After following wheat prices higher to start the week, corn futures faced sellers to end the week closing below key support levels of the 50 and 100-day moving averages.
  • Late-week weather models show next week’s heat staying in the Southern Plains rather than the western Corn Belt, this should allow for ridge-riding storms to pop up in the Midwest.
  • 59% of US corn-producing areas are experiencing drought according to this week’s drought monitor, this is up 4% from last week and the worst since 2012.

Soybeans Stumble Near Contract Highs

  • September CBOT soybean futures added 4 cents this week to close at 1433.
  • November CBOT soybean futures shed 19-1/4 cents this week closing at 1382-1/2.
  • This week November soybeans were within 13-1/4 cents of the contact high but weakness to end the week put futures back below the $14 level resulting in technically poor weekly price action.
  • First support on a break lower in November soybeans should come in at the 200-day moving average near the 1335 level.
  • New crop soybeans had three separate daily flash sales to unknown destinations this week but current 2023/24 marketing year sales are still nearly 60% behind last year’s pace.
  • Many private crop estimating firms continue to leave US soybean yield unchanged from early season estimates with a lack of significant weather threats in past weeks or in forecast outlooks. August CPC outlooks are calling for below-normal temperatures in the western Midwest and above-normal precipitation in the southern Midwest.

Wheat Mixed on the Week

  • CBOT September wheat futures added 6-3/4 cents this week to close at 704-1/4.
  • KCBOT September wheat futures shed 4 cents this week to close at 856-1/4.
  • MGEX September spring wheat futures added 14-3/4 cents this week to close at 901-3/4.
  • The Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durum Tour concluded Thursday in Fargo. The tour is estimating US spring wheat yield of 47.4 bpa, last year the tour found a yield of 49.1 bpa.
  • Weekend news out of the Black Sea region will be watched closely by the trade for direction of the Sunday night open.
  • A sharp reversal higher in the US Dollar Index in the last two weeks has added pressure to the wheat complex.

Weekly Dairy Trade Mixed, Up Overall

  • The spot cheese trade stalled mid-week but was higher on the week overall, the block/barrel average up over 11 cents per pound on the week.
  • Cold storage from earlier in the week showed strong growth in butter inventories and overall cheese inventories lower than last year.
  • Regional cheese reports offer bullish support of prices stating milk availability tightening with strong demand for cheese.
  • Dairy cow culling continues at strong rates YoY, with the week ending 7/15 up 7.5% from last year.


Keegan Madigan

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