This Week in Commodities 08-05-2022

Corn Lower on the Week, Hangs Above $6

  • September corn futures shed six cents this week to close at 610-1/4
  • December corn futures shed 10 cents this week to close at 610
  • The USDA’s first survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates will be released Friday, August 12; These estimates will be based on farmer surveys and satellite NDVI imagery
  • Three more ships left Ukraine Friday, in total over the last month 84,000 tons have left Ukrainian ports
  • The US exported a record $17.5 billion dollars worth of agriculture and related goods to China in the first six months of 2022; Corn and soybeans accounted for 47% of the total
  • Export demand remains sluggish in the near term as the US dollar remains elevated and US corn is priced higher than South America


Soybeans Lower on the Week After Rough Start

  • September soybean futures shed 24 cents this week to close at 1463-1/4
  • November soybean futures shed 59-3/4 cents this week to close at 1408-3/4
  • After rains for the northern Corn Belt over the weekend, weather into the middle of the month is expected to be warm and dry for areas west of the Mississippi River
  • Tensions between the US and China continue to fester following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan; China announced sanctions against Pelosi late this week and called her visit provocative
  • According to this week’s Drought Monitor data, 28% of US soybean acres are under drought footprint, up two percent from the previous week
  • Argentina’s crushers may continue to have difficulty buying soybeans from domestic growers given the dramatic inflation there and the government interference; This should lend support to the soybean meal market


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All Wheats Follow Row Crops Lower

  • September CBOT wheat futures shed 32 cents this week to close at 775-3/4
  • September KC wheat futures shed 26-1/4 cents this week to close at 884-1/4
  • September spring wheat futures shed 19-1/2 cents this week to close at 886-1/2
  • The wheat/corn spread is near the lowest since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, this should make wheat more attractive to buyers versus corn
  • Wheat prices across all three wheats have held support well over the last month pointing towards potential bottoming action
  • The USDA’s resurveying of planted acres in the Dakotas and Minnesota will give the market a better idea of spring wheat acreage

Dairy Markets Finish the Week Lower Overall 

Both Class III and IV milk second month futures contracts started the week higher but finished lower. Milk and cheese supplies seem to be abundant in many places with the only shortage in the market appearing to be butter, where the spot market has held over $3/lb. this week. The downward march of the GDT coming off historical highs continued. Some support to the dairy markets could come in the form of government buying and schools getting back in session. There were reports of the US government buying fluid milk for the 4th quarter for distribution through domestic feeding programs. Nearly 1.5 million gallons purchased already with more to come.


Keegan Madigan

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