This Week in Commodities 2-17-2023

Corn Futures Sideways Yet Again

  • March CBOT corn futures shed 2-3/4 cents this week to close at 677-3/4.
  • December of 2023 CBOT corn futures shed a ¼ of a cent this week to close at 595-3/4.
  • The USDA confirmed the sale of 120,800 tons of US corn for delivery to unknown destination in 2022/23. This was following the USDA’s announcement of a 213,370-ton corn sale to Mexico for the 2022/23 marketing year.
  • The US Ag Secretary said this week that the USA is “disappointed” with the Mexican governments announcement to go forward with a deadline to ban genetically modified corn for human consumption. Mexico will continue to allow GMO corn to be used for animal feed and industrial use.
  • Second crop corn planting in Brazil’s top corn producing state Mato Grosso has made progress in last month totaling 34% complete as of Monday, this is about 8% behind the five year average pace. Wet weather has recently delayed first crop soybean harvest and second crop corn planting.

New Crop Bean Move Higher Again

  • March CBOT soybean futures shed 15 cents this week to close at 1527-1/4.
  • November of 2023 CBOT soybean futures added 7-1/2 cents this week to close at 1386-1/4.
  • New crop soybean futures moved higher this week, this was the third consecutive week of higher prices. The $14 futures level is now less than 15 cents away, this was an area of strong resistance late in 2022 for new crop soybean prices.
  • In 74% of years since 2000 November soybean futures have been trading higher 10 trading days from today.
  • Soybean futures continued their consolidation pattern this week as traders continue to weight the bullish push of a continuing to shirk Argentina soybean crop and the bearish pull of the projected record Brazilian soybean crop coming to market.


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Wheat Prices Mixed This Week

  • March CBOT wheat futures shed 20-1/2 cents this week to close at 765-1/2.
  • March KCBOT wheat futures shed 2-1/2 cents this week to close at 906-1/2.
  • March MGEX spring wheat futures shed a ½ cent this week to close at 929-3/4.
  • In 61% of years since 2000, July KC wheat futures have been trading higher 10 trading days from today.
  • The CPC released its Seasonal Drought Outlook this week; drought is expected to persist or develop over the western KC wheat producing areas of the Southern and Central Plains over the next 90 days. Drought improvement is likely in most Chicago wheat producing areas and the western Corn Belt.

2023 Dairy Prices Succumb to Selling Pressure

Despite the rebound in prices last week, all eight quarters for Class III and Class IV milk sustained losses this week. These losses come despite US dairy futures being vastly oversold. Likely scenarios for the downward movement of prices would be export demand for US dairy products waning, moderate growth in milk production, and increasing cheese and butter inventories. Next week will provide multiple fundamental reports in both Milk Production and Cold Storage. The spot market for cheese was extremely active this week with a whopping 51 loads trading, despite this activity the spot price of cheese was nearly unchanged on the week. Feed markets traded mainly sideways this week as corn continues to coil tighter and bean meal failed in staying over $500 per ton on the front month contract and carries a substantial premiums over future months.


Keegan Madigan

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