Front month May CBOT corn lost 2 cents this week to close at 545-1/2. December corn futures added 10-3/4 cents this week to close at 481-1/2. For the March USDA Supply and Demand report scheduled to be released next week, traders see corn ending stocks near 1.46 billion bushels as compared with 1.5 billion bushels in the February report. Traders see the Brazilian crop near 108.4 million tons as compared with 109 million tons in the February update. May corn experienced choppy trade this week but was unable to rally back after sharply lower trade on Monday. This was only the third losing week for front month corn since the first of the year. In the last six weeks the corn market has traded above the 550 mark but has been unable to garner the strength to have a weekly close above this pivotal level.

US corn exporting in the month of January totaled 229 million bushels; this was up 58% from the five-year January average but short of the January 1990 record. Nearly 20% of the total corn shipped in January went to China. Total US ethanol export shipments perked up in January for the first time since early 2020 when the pandemic began. ADM reported in January that China had secured 757 million liters of US ethanol for the first half of 2021. That would top 2016’s annual record. The US shipped 85.9 million liters of ethanol to China in January, up 81% from December and the largest month since February of 2018.

Soybeans continue mostly sideways

Front month May CBOT soybeans added 25-3/4 cents this week to close at 1430. November of 2021 soybeans added 24-1/4 cents to close at 1247-1/4. November soybeans have rallied higher in 16 of the last 18 weeks. Farmers in Mato Grosso Brazil have harvested 67% of their soybeans, up from 52% a week ago. That’s versus 91% a year ago and 80% as the five-year average. Heavy rains in Mato Grosso continue to frustrate Brazilian farmers as they attempt to complete soybean harvest. Some areas of the state have received over 10 inches of rain in the last few days. If the wet weather continues, some are estimating as much as 10% losses for the unharvested soybeans. The slowed harvest is also slowing the planting of second crop corn. In Mato Grosso corn is 73% planted vs 55% a week ago, well off last year’s 98% complete pace. Although these recent rains have raised quality concerns, the overall size of the soybean crop is still estimated to come in at a record over 130 million tons.

Spring crop insurance prices were set at $11.87 for soybeans and $4.58 for corn, both up substantially from last year’s February new crop averages. This was the highest February average for soybeans since the 2013 crop year. The ratio of these average prices comes in at 2.59, the highest ever, just above the recent records of 2017 and 2018. In both 17 and 18 US farmers planted a record 90.2 million acres of soybeans, which was greater than or equal to (in 2018) the number of corn acres planted. With this year’s record spring crop insurance ratio there is a strong argument to be made that soybean acres will match or exceed corn acres in 2021.