This Week in Commodities 7-1-2022

Corn prices struggle for second week in a row.

  • September corn futures shed 63-1/4 cents this week to close at 619-1/2.
  • December corn futures shed 67 cents this week to close at 607.
  • Large declines in crop conditions were noted to end the month in the far eastern corn belt as wet conditions to start the spring have flipped to hot and dry as of late.
  • Corn acres were estimated at on Thursday’s USDA acreage report at 89.9 million acres, up from 89.5 million acres estimated in March.
  • The seven-day NOAA outlook continues to call for significant rainfall totals of an inch or more to fall from the Dakotas to Indiana.
  • The macroeconomic sentiment is deteriorating in grain markets as the dollar continues to rise and the bull market of energies appears to be ending.
  • December corn futures closed below the 200-day moving average to end the week, this was the first close below this level since late 2020.

New Crop Soybeans Down after supportive USDA numbers.

  • August soybean futures shed 11 cents this week to close at 1509-3/4.
  • November soybean futures shed 29 cents this week to close at 1395-1/4.
  • US soybean planted acres declined more than what traders expected in the USDA June acreage report. An estimated just 88.3 million acres of soybeans were planted versus the projected 90.9 million in the March planting intentions report.
  • The USDA stated in Thursday’s report that NASS will be resurveying in July for crop plantings in North and South Dakota as wells as Minnesota because of planting delays and the large number of unplanted crops at the time of the June survey.
  • Even with this “bullish” acreage number from the USDA soybean traded to their lowest levels since February to end the week.
  • Significant gains in US soybean prices, the lowest Brazilian currency exchange rate since early March and a strengthening dollar will discourage US soybean purchases in favor of purchases from South America.

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All Wheats Lower This Week

  • September CBOT wheat futures shed 90-1/2 cents this week to close at 846.
  • September KC wheat futures shed 84-3/4 cents this week to close at 913-1/2.
  • September spring wheat futures shed 122-1/4 cents this week to close at 948.
  • Front month CBOT wheat futures closed below the 200-day moving average this week for the first time in the last 12 months.
  • SovEcon agriculture consultancy raised its forecast for Russia’s 2022/23 wheat exports by 300,000 tons to a new record of 42.6 million. In their most recent supply/demand report, the USDA put Russian exports at 40.00 million tons.
  • US all wheat acres came in just a little higher than expected at 47.1 million acres vs the 47.35 million forecasted in March.

Milk Lower for Third Consecutive Week

Class III prices took it on the chin this week; the second month August contract was down $1.17 with a $22.42 close, totaling $2.32 of losses in the last three weeks. The spot market trade was higher on the week; however the block/barrel average was 7 cents higher with a finish at $2.18875/lb today, while whey closed at $0.50/lb and up 2.50 cents from last Friday. With the spot markets hanging in there, the milk future weakness is likely tied to the downfall in grain/feed prices, the higher dollar, and the overall trend of managed money starting to exit commodity longs.


Keegan Madigan

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