This Week in Commodities 8-12-2022

Corn Rallies Post USDA Report

September corn futures added 29-1/2 cents this week to close at 639-3/4.

  • December corn futures added 32-1/4 cents this week to close at 642-1/4.
  • Friday’s finish for December corn futures was the best close since June 29; today’s close above the 200-day moving average was also a welcome sign.
  • The USDA cut its forecasted US corn yield for 2022 by 1.6 bushels to come in at 175.4 bushels per acre. The only US states where corn yields are forecasts notably better than last year are in the northern Corn Belt.
  • A French firm, Strategie Grains, estimated Europe’s corn crop at 55.4 mmt yesterday, which is below the USDA’s August estimate of 60.0 mmt as the country struggles with drought.
  • Drought conditions worsened in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas over the last week according to the drought monitor, the eastern Corn Belt largely remains in good shape as far as moisture conditions go.
  • With the USDA report out of the way, market attention will turn back to weather and private crop tour yield estimates over the next few weeks.


Soybeans push back near recent highs

  • September soybean futures added 71-3/4 cents this week to close at 1535.
  • November soybean futures added 45-1/2 cents this week to close at 1454-1/4.
  • The USDA’s yield forecast for US soybeans of 51.9 bushels per acre ties the 2016 record yield. Record yields are expected in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
  • The USDA’s July acreage resurvey in the Dakotas found soybean acres 300,000 acres lower than what was estimated back in June.
  • China reduced its 2021/22 import estimate for soybeans by 2 million tons to come in at 91 million, much of the cut is tied to lower soybean meal demand due to poor hog sector margins.
  • Most areas of the Corn Belt are expected to see cooler temperatures and rain chances over the next 10-days according to most forecast models.


Like what you’re reading?

Sign up for our other free daily TFM Market Updates and stay in the know!


All Wheats Follow Row Crops Higher

  • September CBOT wheat futures added 30-1/4 cents this week to close at 806.
  • September KCBOT wheat futures added 5 cents this week to close at 889-1/4.
  • September MGEX wheat future added 28-1/2 cents this week to close at 915.
  • US wheat production numbers came in very close to expectations with today’s report. All wheat production came in at 1.78 billion bushels verses 1.65 billion last year.
  • The US Dollar index retreated from its recent highs this week closing lower for the third week in the last four weeks.
  • With harvest pressure mostly out of the way for the winter wheats the market will look to establish a short-term bottom supported by recent price action.

Choppy Week for Milk Prices 

Milk futures capped off a back-and-forth week with mostly red on the board as the September Class III price fell 30 cents to $19.80, but was still 50 cents higher on the week. Help came from spot cheese which garnered 7.75 cents to the topside to hurdle back above the $1.80/lb mark with a close at $1.86625/lb. Within the Class IV products, spot butter dropped 7.50 cents on the week to $2.9350/lb with powder up 1.50 cents overall, leading to a 19 cent drop for the second month September contract. Price direction remains lower for Class IV futures, while the Class III market is attempting to build a base after the recent selloff. The only fundamental update next week will be Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade Auction, which has fallen nine out of the last ten events.


Keegan Madigan

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates