This Week In Dairy 09-25-2020

September 25, 2020

We strive to assist farmers in better managing their revenue and helping them gain back control. If you have clients that need professional consultation and guidance, please get me in touch with them. As a leader in this industry, Total Farm Marketing can help your clients implement and manage a range of marketing tools, such as Milk Plant & Elevator Contracts, Hedging Tools, and D-RP. We know that every operation’s needs are unique, so we provide assessment consultations, webinars, group presentations, education, and individual management consultations to help meet their goals. Find resources here: Webinars & Events

Together, let’s work to keep these dairy men and women in the game. 

Contact: Michael Rusch
Sales Director | Total Farm Marketing
Direct: 262.438.0323 | Text: 262.334.9779 | Email: Mike@TFM.ag


Milk

Milk futures have traded extremely volatile for the past few sessions with prices not really going anywhere. For example, second month October milk hit a new contract high on Monday of $19.87 before falling a whopping $1.23 on Tuesday and recovering 73c on Friday. The third month November contract has seen a similar amount of volatility. While that is going on, however, 2021 milk continues to push higher. There remains some optimism out there with all contracts holding in the mid to upper $16.00 price levels. The spot cheese block/barrel average price holds up over $2.10/lb, which is strong. Spot powder prices have quietly made their way back up to $1.10/lb, which is over 30c from this year’s low.

Highlights:

  • A high spot cheese price of over $2.10/lb is keeping nearby milk futures at elevated prices
  • On Friday, October class III milk finished at $18.85 per hundredweight
  • Spot powder prices are making a comeback, up about 30c from this year’s low
  • The 2021 class III milk market continues to trend upwards

Corn

Corn futures closed red in four out of five trading sessions this week. The selling pressure took the front month December contract down a total of 13.25c to $3.6525 per bushel. The corn export market was quieter this week, with no announcements on Friday. Weather forecasts still show great weather for harvesting, especially in the U.S. western Corn Belt. The market did stabilize a bit during Friday’s session, with December recovering 1.75c on the day. The International Grains Council lowered its global corn estimate by 6 million tons. Talk of rain in Argentina over the weekend that could improve soil conditions helped add pressure to prices.

Highlights:

  • Great harvest weather and farmer selling are keeping pressure on the corn market
  • China has slowed down its purchases of corn from the United States in recent days
  • Forecasts show rain coming to Argentina over the weekend that could improve soil moisture
  • A stronger Dollar this week likely kept pressure on the grain trade

Soybean Meal

Soybean meal futures posted just their second down week out of the past seven this week, with front month October dropping $0.50 to $336.90. The high of the week was $346.50 while the low of the week was $330.70. Market sentiment is weaker, with some believing China could be done buying beans from the U.S. at this time. There were no bean sales today or yesterday. Weather will be watched closely next week with forecasts for cold temperatures overnight. This could lead to some frost and freezes in part of the Midwest next week. Funds are likely starting to liquidate long positions in the soybean complex until bullish news comes around again.

Highlights:

  • Some market participants believe China could be done buying beans from the U.S. for awhile
  • Next week forecasts very cold temperatures. Frost and freeze watch will be on
  • Export pace for soybeans has been strong
  • Funds could start liquidating positions until another round of bullish news comes out

Market Quotes

Author

Evan Disher

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