We’ve identified Three Big Things to watch as we move into September.

1. September WASDE

The USDA’s September WASDE report will bring the first yield estimates for the 2021 crop, incorporating objective yield data from USDA’s conducted field surveys. Field surveys conducted during the last week of August will be taking corn ear counts across a ten-state region as well as soybean pod counts per 18 square feet in an 11-state region. Farmer survey feedback and satellite data will also be incorporated into the estimates. These two data points, however, will carry less weight in the September yield calculations compared to the August estimates. The August yield estimate came in at 174.6 bushels per acre, 4.9 bushels per acre below the previous USDA estimate. Price action following the report was poor. December futures prices slid back into the same range they were trading prior to the report. The September WASDE report is set to be released on Friday, September 10 at 11:00 a.m. Central Time.

2. Exports

The start of September marks the start of a new marketing year for corn and soybeans. After the record-setting exports of both corn and soybeans in the 2020/2021 marketing year, exports are currently projected slightly lower for the 2021/2022 marketing year. Chinese appetite for U.S. corn and soybeans over the next 12 months will undoubtedly have an influence on futures prices. Exports have historically accounted for about half of U.S. total soybean usage and about 16-18% of total U.S. corn usage.

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3. Brazil

The peak planting window across much of Brazil will occur between September 10 and October 10. While drier-than-normal conditions persisted across much of Brazil into early November, the soybean crop still managed to come in at a new record for the country by nearly nine million metric tons. Brazil’s 2021/2022 soybean acreage is expected to increase by 4-5%, which would be at a record 100 million acres. According to the USDA, Brazil’s 2021/2022 corn acreage is expected to increase 5-6% to 51.3 million acres. Given these estimates, Brazil is expected to once again increase its stake in world corn and soybean production.

Sources

1. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/2020/09-11-2020.pdf
2. USDA
3. http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Aug25_21-Potential-Brazil-Corn-and-Soybean-Production-in-202122
   1. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf – page 29

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Author

Keegan Madigan