TOP FARMER MIDDAY UPDATE – September 4, 2019

CORN: Corn futures are drifting further with Sep corn down 4 cents to 3.45-3/4, Dec corn is down 3 cents to 3.58, and Mar corn is down 3 cents to 3.71-1/4. Crop conditions increased by 1% this week to 58% good to excellent. Forecasts for the next two weeks are still showing above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation which will give the corn crop extra time to fill out. Perceptions of poor demand continue to drag markets lower as well. Yesterday’s technical break down opened up room for even more speculative selling action. Spec funds were thought to have sold about 28,000 contracts of corn yesterday and are likely to continue short selling the corn market.

SOYBEANS: Soybean markets are slightly lower in early trade today, with Sep down 4 cents to 8.52-1/2, Nov beans are down 1-1/2 to 8.67, and Jan beans are down 1-1/4 to 8.81. Yesterday’s export inspections total was the highest weekly total since February 21. Soybean crop conditions released yesterday afternoon showed 55% of the bean crop was rated good to excellent, steady with last week despite expectations for a 1% increase. Around 10.7 million acres have still not set pods. Warmer forecasts for the next two weeks are bearish and yesterday’s NOPA Crush report pegged U.S. bean oil stocks above the range of market estimates. Nov beans again retested their 20-day moving average resistance level yesterday but have since backed off and are now trading at their 10-day moving average support level. Speculative funds were thought to have bought about 5,000 contracts of beans yesterday.

WHEAT: Wheat markets are finding a bit of a bounce today, with Dec Chi wheat up 7 cents to 4.60-1/2, Dec KC wheat is up 5-1/2 cents to 3.87-3/4, and Dec spring wheat futures are up 7-1/2 cents to 4.94-1/2. Spring wheat futures are finding some support on crop conditions that came down 2% from last week. This is due to excessive rains mainly in MN and the Dakotas. Most of the support in wheat markets today is likely technical in nature, with KC, Mpls, and Paris wheat futures all making new contract lows yesterday. KC and Mpls futures are oversold and Dec wheat found support yesterday on a trendline lower. All three wheat contracts are trading near the highs of the day though are still within yesterday’s trading ranges. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 8,000 contracts of Chi wheat yesterday.

CATTLE: Cattle markets are mixed this morning, with Oct lives down 52 cents to 98.75, Dec lives are down 62 cents to 103.70, and Feb lives are down 25 cents to 108.95. Sep feeders are up 57 cents to 134.72 and Oct feeders are up 30 cents to 132.40. Live cattle continue to be limited by slipping cash trade over the past few weeks. Yesterday’s Online Fed Cattle Exchange had a handful of trades at $103, steady with cash trade late last week. Boxed beef values are also drifting lower, limiting buyer interest in the live markets despite the relatively cheap prices. Oct lives briefly tested their overhead 10-day moving average resistance level today but have since backed off and are moving towards the low end of the recent range. Oct feeders again tested their 20-day moving average resistance level but have fallen below their 10-day moving average support level. Speculative funds are holding very small net-long positions in the live cattle market but the urgency to own in a greater capacity is just not there.

HOGS: Hog markets are mixed this morning, with Oct up 12 cents to 66.65, Dec hogs are down 77 cents to 65.05, and Feb hogs are down 67 cents to 72.62. U.S. pork values had a solid close yesterday, but the Cash Hog Index continues to fall lower. China pig prices had a rare stutter overnight though the trend is higher. The nearby Oct contract made its highest close yesterday since August 14 and the trend is still pointing higher. Dec and Feb contracts made their highest closes yesterday since late July but are now approaching overbought levels which could be attracting some of the technical selling today. In addition, Dec and Feb have run into overhead resistance.


Carol Tillmann

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