TFM Daily Market Summary 08-29-2023


  • Selling pressure across the grain complex pressured corn futures as prices reversed off the session highs and Dec corn closed 9-1/2 cents lower on the day. The weak price action damaged the charts technically and could bring additional selling pressure for tomorrow’s session.
  • Weekly crop progress numbers showed corn rated good to excellent fell only 2% to 56%, where a 3% drop was expected, and 17% of the crop was rated poor to very poor. The eastern Corn Belt ratings improved week over week, despite the recent hot weather.
  • Weather forecasts are staying on the warmer and drier side, but the impact of Hurricane Idalia in the Gulf could trigger some moisture in the Corn Belt.
  • As harvest moves closer, basis levels could be under pressure as end users become more comfortable with front-end supplies, as well as receiving freshly harvested corn. The possibly softer cash market tone will likely weigh on futures prices.
  • Brazilian corn crop harvest is nearing completion at 83% harvested last week. The northern regions are starting planting of next spring’s new crop, with 7% of corn being planted as of last week.


  • Soybeans ended the day lower, along with both soybean meal and oil, after yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed very little crop degradation compared to what trade was expecting. Export sales this morning offered some support earlier in the day before prices faded again.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress data showed little degradation in the soybean crop with good to excellent ratings falling only one point to 58% despite the heat and dry conditions. Trade was expecting 56%. 91% of the crop is setting pods and 5% is dropping leaves.
  • As the US becomes more competitive with Brazil, exports have begun to pick up over the past few weeks with two sales being reported today. 246,100 metric tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year, and 105,000 metric tons of soybean meal were sold to unknown destinations, also the 23/24 marketing year.
  • Weather forecasts over the next 14 days or more are showing above normal temperatures and below average precipitation which could cause crop ratings to fall more significantly in the coming weeks.


  • US wheat futures may have inherited some weakness today from other global markets. Matif wheat futures closed lower, and harvest progress in Brazil is putting pressure on their prices as well.
  • According to Interfax and the Russian Grain Union, Russia’s grain exports increased 27% year on year. Wheat shipments specifically were up 29% from August 1st to 27th.
  • Concerns about China’s economy may be weighing on the grain complex as a whole. China is the world’s largest commodity buyer, so demand is a legitimate worry. China announced that they are going to reduce mortgage rates to help stimulate the economy, but so far, their attempts have had little success.
  • December Chicago wheat posted a new contract low today at 5.99-1/2 but was able to close just above support at 6.00. Technically, it is oversold and could be due for a correction to the upside but may not have the fundamental support to sustain any significant rally.


  • Spot cheese jumped 5.75 cents to move back over $1.90/lb. Volume was light, but the strong bidding was good to see.
  • Positive cheese movement brought Class III futures from morning losses to nice gains by the afternoon close, with September up 17 cents and October 28 cents higher.
  • Spot butter had a rough day today, dropping a nickel to $2.62/lb, while powder was down a quarter cent.
  • This brought upon more losses for Class IV futures, in which the September and October contracts were down 11 and 14 cents, respectively.


Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


John Heinberg

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