The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
September 4, in observance of Labor Day
- Extended selling pressure in the soybean market kept the corn market from holding session highs to finish slightly lower on the day. December corn lost 2-1/2 cents on the day and had a 9-3/4 cent trading range on the day. Price action stays weak overall.
- The Weekly Export Sales report released by the USDA showed old crop corn sales at 2.8 MB and 39.0 MB in new crop sales reported last week. These totals were within market expectations. Corn sales overall are still lackluster and limiting market gains.
- Grain markets are becoming concerned about the water levels on the Mississippi River for the fall harvest window. Barge restrictions have been put in place, limiting grain movement, and has the potential to impact cash basis levels going in the fall months.
- September corn futures moved into the delivery window against long contract positions. The CBOT reported “Zero” deliveries against the September contract, which is supportive of price.
- Weather forecasts are still showing limited rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures going into the middle of September. This should speed up maturity and limit any possible yield potential in most areas of the Corn Belt as the crop finishes out.
- Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, along with both soybean meal and oil, despite the hot and dry weather and decent export sales today. Earlier in the day, soybean oil traded higher with help from higher crude and palm oil, but the entire grain complex faded lower by the end of the day.
- Export sales were good overall despite net sales reductions for 22/23 of 50,700 mt, which was a marketing year low. For 23/24, sales were 1,123,800 mt and were primarily to unknown destinations and China. Exports of 319,700 mt were down 29% from the previous week.
- Some crop scouts are now estimating soybean yields below 50 bpa and in some cases as low as 49.5 bpa due to the hot and dry conditions. This compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 52.0 bpa. The USDA will update their estimates on September 12.
- The US has become much more competitive with Brazil for new crop soybean sales and as a result, there has been a sale reported nearly every day this week and significant amounts last week. This morning, a sale of 123,000 mt was reported to unknown destinations for 23/24.
- After trading both sides of neutral today, wheat struggled to hold any gains. All three US futures classes posted losses in tandem with Paris milling wheat futures. Weakness may have stemmed from today’s rise in the US dollar, struggling corn and soybeans, and the fact that exports are still relatively poor.
- The USDA reported an increase of 12.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 24/25. Export shipments are still behind the 13.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s goal of 700 mb for 23/24. Last week’s shipments were only 13 mb.
- Despite US soft wheat is now competitive versus other world origins, the difference in freight costs may be the anchor on exports. Yesterday, Egypt purchased wheat from Romania and France, as their freight costs are cheaper than the US.
- Russia has reportedly said that they will discuss with Turkey an alternative to the Black Sea grain export deal. This week Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, will meet with Hakan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister. While the exact details are not set in stone yet, it appears that the plan would involve Russia sending grain to Turkey, where it would then be sent to countries in need.
- No dairy content today.
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