TFM Midday Update 01-19-2024

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 49.3 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 24/25. Commitments at 1.241 bb for 23/24 are up 36% from last year.
After yesterday’s reversal and a higher close, corn is trading higher this morning, along with soybeans and wheat.
Uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East have crude oil on the rise. The grain complex may be benefiting from this rally.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn crop was rated 46% good to excellent, up from 36% last week, and dramatically higher than the 5% rating a year ago.
Reportedly, China imported 195 mb of corn for the month of December. That is record large, and while some came from the US, the majority originated from Brazil.

The USDA reported an increase of 28.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25. Commitments at 1.374 bb for 23/24 are down 18% from last year.
This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 297,000 mt of soybeans to China for the 23/24 marketing year.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean crop was rated 55% good to excellent. This compares with 51% last week and is well above the 4% GTE rating at this time last year.
Although their conditions have improved drastically, the upcoming weather forecast for Argentina is turning a little drier, which may stress their soybean crop in the coming weeks.

The USDA reported an increase of 26 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Commitments at 592 mb for 23/24 are down 4% from last year.
The rebound in wheat may be a result of short covering by funds who still hold a large position. This may have been triggered by wheat futures being very oversold technically.
Paris milling wheat futures are trading higher this morning. If they can close in positive territory, it would be the third session in a row that they have done so. This would also lend some support to the US market.
With the recent decline in price, global importers are stepping up to the plate to purchase wheat. Reportedly, over the past three days, there has been about 59 mb of wheat booked, mostly by North African and Middle Eastern countries. Unfortunately, most of that was sourced out of the Black Sea region.

Brandon Doherty