TFM Midday Update 03-26-2024

CORN

The grain complex is under pressure this morning, in part from the mix of rain and snow throughout much of the US.
This Thursday will feature the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report. Pre-report estimates have corn acreage around 92 million, which would be up from the USDA outlook forum, but down from last year.
Brazil is expected to get good rains totaling 3-5 inches in Mato Grosso and the northern regions, whereas southern Brazil is currently too dry and could use additional moisture.
The USDA has said that avian flu has been detected in milk and dairy cattle in the southern US. While they say that the milk is safe, this may ultimately impact consumer sentiment and potentially feed demand.

Soybean oil is lower this morning and weighing on soybeans with pressure potentially coming from profit taking in palm oil futures.
Pre-report estimates have soybean acreage around 86.3 million, which would be 2.7 ma above last year.
While Brazilian soybean basis has risen over 60 cents since January, their soybeans remain at a steep discount to US offers and may limit upside movement in futures.
Chinese soybean and soybean meal values are reportedly down today, along with their crush margins. These decreased crush margins may further exacerbate pressure on domestic soybeans in China.

After making a new near-term high yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures closed lower, and are trading lower again this morning, which is weighing on the US market.
Russian wheat FOB values are said to have increased about $10 per mt over the past couple of weeks. In theory, this should be supportive, but they remain the cheapest origin next to the Black Sea, and this keeps overhead resistance in the market.
Pre-report estimates have all wheat acreage at 47.6 million, which is down 1.9 ma from last year.
Single-digit temperatures are forecasted today and tomorrow, extending as far south as the Texas panhandle, prompting concerns regarding potential freeze damage to the wheat crop.

Brandon Doherty