TFM Midday Update 04-29-2022

CORN

May corn up 8 @ 8.24
Food prices are reportedly up 31% in 2021 and are forecast to be up 23% in 2022
Between now and May 6, the Midwest forecast is very wet, which may slow plantings – this could reduce planted acreage and lower the odds of a US corn yield above 180
China buying 1 mmt of US corn this week may suggest they are replacing corn they were supposed to get from Ukraine
September corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.67 per bushel
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 19% of Argentina’s corn crop was good to excellent (and 25% has been harvested)

May soybeans up 16 @ 17.22
Possibility of increased demand for US soybeans due to high crush margins and discount of US soybean oil vs canola and sunoil
US soybean exports may increase another 100 mb, with US competitive vs Brazil August 1^st
May soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $21.83 per bushel
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 16% of Argentina’s soybean crop was good to excellent (and 46% has been harvested)

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May wheat down 23 @ 10.51, May KC down 18 @ 11.18, & May MNPLS down 12 @ 11.78
Matif new crop futures are making new contract highs
The western half of the US southern Plains will remain dry overall, potentially lowering the HRW wheat crop further
The US Dollar Index is above 103 – the highest level in 20 years – this may be pressuring wheat
Ukrainian farmers are reportedly finding Russian mines in their fields, making it very dangerous for them to do any work
A flood watch is in effect in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota

Jun LC down 0.700 @ 133.20 & May FC unchanged 0.750 @ 157.950
April live cattle expire today
Live cattle still have large chart gaps above current levels which may need to be filled
Cash was steady to higher this week suggesting that packers need cattle
Higher corn futures may limit upside potential
Choice cuts up 0.69 and select down 1.26
Cattle slaughter projected at 118K

Brandon Doherty