TFM Midday Update 05-03-2022

CORN

July corn down 4 @ 7.99
Corn inspections pegged at 66.3 mb with total inspections now at 1.440 bb
USDA said 14% of the corn crop is planted vs 33% average and 42% last year
CONAB has Brazil’s 2nd (safrinha) corn crop at 88 mmt
The ag minister of Germany stated he believes that Russia is targeting Ukraine’s grain infrastructure to eliminate them as an export competitor
Jul corn has closed the gap on the daily chart

July soybeans up 7 @ 16.52
Soybean inspections pegged at 22.1 mb with total inspections now at 1.735 bb
USDA said 8% of the soybean crop is planted vs 13% average and 22% last year
Unconfirmed rumors that Indonesia is going to reverse their palm oil export ban
China is on holiday so no export news expected from them
Economists are concerned about China’s economy due to covid lockdowns there, which could ultimately impact the global economy

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Jul wheat down 8 @ 10.47, Jul KC down 7 @ 10.91, & Jul MNPLS down 7 @ 11.61
Wheat inspections pegged at 14.1 mb with total inspections now at 689 mb
USDA said winter wheat crop is rated 27% good to excellent vs 48% last year (but unchanged from last week)
These are the lowest winter wheat crop ratings since 1996
USDA said spring wheat is 19% planted vs 28% average and 46% last year
Private estimates of India’s wheat crop are around 105-106 mmt compared to 109.6 mmt last year

Jun LC up 0.925 @ 136.125 & May FC up 0.725 @ 162.150
Packers already have some cattle contracted for the week and may be less aggressive
Higher corn futures overnight may pressure feeder cattle
Large chart gaps still exist above the market in live cattle futures
Choice cuts up 1.77 and select up 0.26
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/2: down 0.40 @ 155.24

Jun hogs down 1.200 @ 103.775 & Jun pork cutout down 1.100 @ 110.750
Cutouts closed 2.00 higher – if they hold strength it may give traders confidence to buy back into the market
Packers might be more aggressive today
Hog futures are oversold and due for a correction
National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.58
Hog slaughter projected at 480K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/3: down 0.18 @ 101.59

Brandon Doherty