TFM Midday Update 05-20-2022


  • Jul corn down 6 @ 7.78
  • Corn is lower this morning after Argentina lifted their corn cap exports from 30 to 35 mmt
  • Argentina estimated their corn harvest at 27% done, with a crop of 49 mmt, vs 53 last year
  • The People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut the five-year rate on prime loans Friday, a move helpful to the Chinese economy and the world economy
  • Corn is on track for a small loss this week, but July prices have held above key support at 7.65
  • DTN’s National Corn Index closed at 7.76 yesterday, just 7 cents below the July contract, showing the strongest national basis for corn in ten years


  • Jul soybeans up 15 @ 17.05
  • Soybeans are higher, thanks to a bump in soybean meal and oil today
  • The weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending May 12, net soybean sales came in at 752,690 tonnes for the current marketing year and 149,500 for the next year
  • Cumulative soybean sales have reached 102% of the USDA’s forecast for the 21/22 marketing year vs a 5-year average of 98%
  • Yesterday, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange said 67% of Argentina’s soybeans were harvested and the exchange expects 1.54 bb of production, the same as the USDA’s estimate


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  • Jul wheat down 25 @ 11.76, Jul KC down 37 @ 12.59, & Jul MNPLS down 50 @ 12.79
  • While all wheat contracts are continuing to trade lower, underlying fundamentals remain strong
  • Overnight, Moscow rejected the UN proposal to allow Ukrainian exports
  • The final day of the Wheat Quality Council’s HRW Tour finished with an estimate of Kansas wheat production at 261 mb with a yield of 39.7 bpa
  • West Texas and the southwestern Plains are expecting moderate to heavy showers on Monday and Tuesday, but that may be too late for most crops
  • North Dakota received more rain yesterday, and rain and snow is falling in southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba today, adding to their weather difficulties


  • Jun LC up 0.300 @ 131.800 May FC down 0.125 @ 154.000
  • Most cash for the week has traded around two dollars lower than last week, which was fairly expected with the packer being so well bought
  • Cattle on Feed report will come out today after the close and expected number are 101.4% for on feed, placements at 96.1%, and marketings at 98%
  • Weekly export sales yesterday came in 18% below last week at 23,300 mt
  • Choice cuts up 1.23 and select up 0.04
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/19: down 1.59 @ 153.46


  • Jul hogs up 0.900 @ 107.900 & Jun pork cutout up 0.950 @ 112.375
  • Hogs are lower today, alongside lower cash and cutout
  • Export sales were neutral at 24,100 mt, with China being the fourth largest buyer
  • Lower hog weights and increasing seasonal demand should support the market and a further retracement of futures
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 1.18
  • Hog slaughter projected at 447K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 5/20: up 0.18 @ 100.08


Amanda Brill

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