TFM Midday Update 05-20-2022

CORN

Jul corn down 6 @ 7.78
Corn is lower this morning after Argentina lifted their corn cap exports from 30 to 35 mmt
Argentina estimated their corn harvest at 27% done, with a crop of 49 mmt, vs 53 last year
The People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut the five-year rate on prime loans Friday, a move helpful to the Chinese economy and the world economy
Corn is on track for a small loss this week, but July prices have held above key support at 7.65
DTN’s National Corn Index closed at 7.76 yesterday, just 7 cents below the July contract, showing the strongest national basis for corn in ten years

Jul soybeans up 15 @ 17.05
Soybeans are higher, thanks to a bump in soybean meal and oil today
The weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending May 12, net soybean sales came in at 752,690 tonnes for the current marketing year and 149,500 for the next year
Cumulative soybean sales have reached 102% of the USDA’s forecast for the 21/22 marketing year vs a 5-year average of 98%
Yesterday, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange said 67% of Argentina’s soybeans were harvested and the exchange expects 1.54 bb of production, the same as the USDA’s estimate

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Jul wheat down 25 @ 11.76, Jul KC down 37 @ 12.59, & Jul MNPLS down 50 @ 12.79
While all wheat contracts are continuing to trade lower, underlying fundamentals remain strong
Overnight, Moscow rejected the UN proposal to allow Ukrainian exports
The final day of the Wheat Quality Council’s HRW Tour finished with an estimate of Kansas wheat production at 261 mb with a yield of 39.7 bpa
West Texas and the southwestern Plains are expecting moderate to heavy showers on Monday and Tuesday, but that may be too late for most crops
North Dakota received more rain yesterday, and rain and snow is falling in southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba today, adding to their weather difficulties

Jun LC up 0.300 @ 131.800 & May FC down 0.125 @ 154.000
Most cash for the week has traded around two dollars lower than last week, which was fairly expected with the packer being so well bought
Cattle on Feed report will come out today after the close and expected number are 101.4% for on feed, placements at 96.1%, and marketings at 98%
Weekly export sales yesterday came in 18% below last week at 23,300 mt
Choice cuts up 1.23 and select up 0.04
Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/19: down 1.59 @ 153.46

Jul hogs up 0.900 @ 107.900 & Jun pork cutout up 0.950 @ 112.375
Hogs are lower today, alongside lower cash and cutout
Export sales were neutral at 24,100 mt, with China being the fourth largest buyer
Lower hog weights and increasing seasonal demand should support the market and a further retracement of futures
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 1.18
Hog slaughter projected at 447K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/20: up 0.18 @ 100.08

Amanda Brill