TFM Midday Update 06-30-2022

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, July 4, 2022, in observance of Independence Day

CORN

Jul corn down 8 @ 7.62
Corn is lower following poor export sales of 3.5 mb for 21/22, a marketing year low, down 87% from last week and 72% from the prior 4-week average
Sales for 22/23 were 4.7 mb, and last week’s export shipments of 49.4 mb were above the 36.0 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 2.450 bb for 21/22
The planted acreage and stocks report will be released today with the USDA estimating 89.7 million acres of corn planted this year
For the first notice day of July grain futures, the CME reported no deliveries for corn, soybeans, meal, or oil

Jul soybeans down 17 @ 16.56
Soybeans are lower following poor export sales with a net cancellation of 4.4 mb for 21/22, a marketing year low, down from last week and the prior 4-week average
Sales for 22/23 were 4.7 mb and last week’s export shipments of 19.0 mb were below the 24.4 mb needed each week to achieve USDA’s export estimate of 2.170 bb for 21/22
The USDA is expected to estimate a record high soybean planting of over 90 million acres and would be the first planting larger than corn since 1983
Crude oil is lower bringing soybean oil down with it, and soybean meal is lower as well

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Jul wheat down 9 @ 9.07, Jul KC down 1 @ 9.86, & Jul MNPLS down 3 @ 10.17
All three wheat products are lower this morning following export sales of 18.3 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, primarily to the Philippines, Brazil, and Mexico
Last week’s export shipments of 8.9 mb were below the 13.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb for 22/23
The Dow Jones survey expects spring wheat plantings at only 10.8 million acres, the lowest since 1972 if true
Spring wheat has been plagued by lack of rain in the northwestern US Plains, and crop ratings in Montana are only 28% good-to-excellent

Jun LC up 0.050 @ 136.850 & Aug FC up 1.125 @ 171.850
Front month live cattle are higher with deferred months lower, and feeder cattle higher as corn is down on poor export sales
Cash has been called mostly steady to a dollar lower in some part of the South, with trade in the North a dollar lower as well
Beef net sales of 17,000 mt for 2022 were up 52% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average, with increases primarily to South Korea, China, and Japan
Choice cuts down 2.26 and select down 2.50
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/29: down 0.12 @ 164.08

Jul hogs up 0.175 @ 109.575 & Jul pork cutout up 0.200 @ 110.700
Hogs are higher this morning following a neutral to slightly friendly Hogs and Pigs report that had all categories come in at 99%, with kept for breeding higher than expected
Cash is higher as well as the cutout which gained 3.09 as slaughter pace picks up and weights have declined 3 pounds from the previous week
Pork net export sales for 2022 were up 27% from the previous week at 32,300 mt with increases for Mexico, Japan, and Australia
National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 1.40
Hog slaughter projected at 468K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/30: down 0.38 @ 111.26

Amanda Brill