TFM Midday Update 07-19-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this afternoon but has faded significantly off its highs from early this morning which was led by a new Russian attack on the port city of Odessa in Ukraine.
Projections for ethanol production for the week ending July 14 is showing production higher than the previous week at 1.042 million b/d with the stockpile average estimate above a week ago.
The 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt is still showing dry conditions with temperatures turning the hottest of the season beginning this weekend. Minnesota received some light showers overnight.
Brazil continues to dominate export sales and is projected to continue this into the fall, but Brazilian FOB basis has increased between 60 and 65 cents per bushel in the last month making the US slightly more competitive.

Soybeans are continuing their trend higher again today but have slipped from earlier highs as corn has. Nov beans made new highs for the year today, but soybean meal has slipped lower and soybean oil is posting gains of nearly 3%.
The NWS will likely release their 30 and 90-day forecasts this week which the soy complex will watch closely for an idea on moisture and temperature into the pod fill season.
Forecasts are predicting that August will begin with higher-than-normal temperatures in the western Corn Belt, so rainfall will be important to shore up the poor current soil moisture levels.
NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.

Wheat is trading higher at midday following attacks on Ukraine’s port of Odessa in the Black Sea by Russia, as well as poor crop conditions in the US.
Breaking news was just released that the Russian Defense Ministry will consider all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea as potential carriers of military cargo.
This morning, Russia said that ships in the Black Sea would be “in danger”, but they have also said that they would be willing to come back to negotiate in 3 months if the UN makes good on Russian demands.
The UN is apparently “floating” ideas on how to get Ukrainian and Russian grain out to the rest of the world as the Black Sea is closed.

Amanda Brill