TFM Midday Update 7-19-2021

CORN

  • Sept down 6 @ 5.49 & Dec down 6 @ 5.45
  • Ominous weather forecast lies ahead threatening yields in US
  • Bulk of pollination expected to this week
  • Corn values in Brazil continue to soar with production shortages
  • Ukraine turning too hot/dry could affect production numbers
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 7/16 up 1,549 contracts

SOYBEANS

  • Aug down 24 @ 14.30 & Nov down 19 @ 13.72
  • Soybeans lower today as DOW & bean oil lower on Covid-19 concerns
  • US weather threatens crops in western corn belt & northern plains
  • USDA July canola estimate of 20.2 mmt is likely largely overstated
  • Palm oil futures are once again putting in contract highs on tight supplies
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 7/16 up 5,006 contracts

WHEAT

  • Sept wheat up 3 @ 6.96, Sept KC up 1 @ 6.51, Sept MNPLS up 4 @ 9.21
  • MNPLS wheat once again putting in new contract highs
  • Drought in plains and beyond continue to bolster futures
  • Canada’s crop believed to be largely overstated
  • Falling Russian and EU production due to weather lending support also
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 7/16 up 4,028 contracts SRW

CATTLE

  • Aug LC down .85 @ 119.35  &  Aug FC down 1.02 @ 154.600
  • Concern packers may pull back this week
  • Boxed beef continues to decline – down 1.93 Friday
  • Cash likely to be slow this week – hoping to hold $120 price levels
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • Feeder Cattle cash index for July 15: down .96  @ 151.39

HOGS

  • Aug hogs down .95 @ 104.62 & Aug pork cutout down 1.17 @ 111.72
  • ASF in Germany could push prices higher
  • Oct made new highs – prices gaps in chart that need to be filled
  • China cancelling pork export sales not good for global demand
  • Hog slaughter projected at 462K
  • Cash lean index for July 14: up .34 @ 111.34

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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