TFM Morning Update 01-08-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning as it continues it’s downward trend. High global shipping rates have been a negative factor for grains.
The net short position held by the funds continued to grow last week, and falling prices may cause them to either hold these positions or add new ones.
Weather in Brazil has been improving as they gear up to begin planting new crop corn. The first crop was planted in very hot and dry conditions, but yields for the second crop may be better.
For the week ending January 2, non-commercials were sellers of 19,700 contracts of corn increasing their net short position to a very large 197,326 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the March contract now at the lowest level since June of last year as Brazilian weather improves.
Brazil received beneficial rains over the past two weeks and is expected to get more this week before things turn a bit drier, but private analysts keep lowering their production estimates with many saying too much damage was done earlier in the season.
Safras has cut its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 151.4 mmt which compares to their previous estimate of 158.2 mmt. Many analysts have their estimates around 155 mmt or lower.
Last Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as net sellers of 16,396 contracts of soybeans which flipped them to a net short position of 11,629 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but have managed to stay well off their November lows and continue to hover around the 100-day moving average.
US wheat saw improved export demand while prices were lower, but the recent rally in the US dollar long with global shipping issues has caused demand to fade significantly.
Ukrainian exports of wheat have fallen as well with only 7.8 mmt of wheat exported so far this season which is down 9% year over year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers by only 718 contracts which increased their total net short position to 60,277 contracts.

Amanda Brill