TFM Morning Update 01-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as markets look to recover from highly oversold conditions. Yesterday’s export inspections were better than expected, and focus is shifting to Friday’s WASDE report.
The US inspected 857k tons of corn for export last week which compares to 570k the previous week and 402k a year ago. This was also during a shortened holiday week.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report have Brazilian corn production between 122 mmt and 129 mmt which compares with their last guess of 129 mmt.
Estimates for Argentinian corn production are in a range between 53.5 mmt and 56 mmt with December’s estimate at 56 mmt. Argentina’s crop may get larger due to good weather.

Soybeans are trading higher today after three consecutively lower closes, and both soybean meal and oil are higher as well with bean oil posting the majority of gains with support from crude oil.
Yesterday’s export inspections showed 675k tons of soybeans inspected for export last week which was down from 969k the previous week and 1,461k the previous year.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report have Brazilian soybean production within a range of 152.7 mmt and 160.0 mmt which would be down from the last guess of 161.0 mmt. Some private analysts expect a number closer to 150 mmt.
Estimates for Brazilian corn production this Friday are between 122 mmt and 129 mmt with last month’s guess at 129 mmt. Their first crop corn may have been damaged, but the second crop is being planted in more favorable conditions.

Wheat is trading higher this morning after yesterday’s losses and appears to be in a consolidating pattern. A flash sale to China could cause another round of short covering by the funds.
Yesterday’s export inspections showed that 491k tons of wheat were inspected which compares to 276k the previous week and 210k a year ago. 8.7 mb of that amount was headed for China.
Estimates for US winter wheat seedings ahead of the WASDE report are in a range between 34.5 and 39.4 with an average guess of 35.7. This compares to 36.7 from the USDA’s most recent estimate.
In Brazil, wheat prices have moved higher to begin the year due to a low supply of high quality wheat. Prices paid to wheat farmers reportedly rose by 2.05% in Rio Grande do Sul between December 28 and January 5.

Amanda Brill