TFM Morning Update 01-11-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as traders prepare for the release of tomorrow’s WASDE report and the potential reduction in South American corn production.
Analysts are not expecting much of a change for US yields or ending stocks with the crop already harvested, so the focus will be on Brazilian production.
Non-commercials currently hold a net short position of around 200,000 contracts, so there may be a bit of short covering ahead of the production and stocks report.
The Rosario Board of Trade in Argentina has increased their forecasted corn production to 59 mmt from 56 mmt the previous month due to heavy rains.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil, but soybeans remain in their tight range from the past three days.
The early morning support may be coming from hot and dry weather returning to western central Brazil where there could be possible risk to the soybean areas. Conditions in the eastern regions should be better.
Last night, the Rosario grains exchange raised their estimate for the 23/24 Argentinian soybean crop by 2 mmt to 52 mmt. This should contribute towards offsetting Brazilian losses.
While Brazil and many analysts have cut their forecasts for Brazilian soy production, a record crop is still expected due to an increase in planted acres.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower while Minn trades slightly higher. Winter wheat is under pressure due to the recent moisture.
March Chicago wheat continues to hug the 100-day moving average closely and may be consolidating. With the funds so short, a friendly piece of news could cause short covering.
Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria are working together to clear mines in the Black Sea to ensure a safer export passage for Ukrainian grains.
In tomorrow’s report, likely the most important thing to watch for wheat will be acreage as analysts are expecting acres to fall to about 800,000 due to the low prices.

Amanda Brill