TFM Morning Update 04-12-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning, but May futures are below the 40-day moving average. Yesterday’s WASDE report was essentially neutral to slightly bearish for corn with very few changes made from last month.
The USDA indicated an increase of 25 mb more of ethanol demand and a 25 mb increase in feed demand, but the total increase of 50 mb was below the average trade estimate of 70 mb.
US corn ending stocks of 2.122 bb were above trade estimates, world ending stocks were above the average trade guess, and Argentinian corn production was revised slightly lower by 1 mmt to 55.0 mmt. Brazilian corn production was unchanged at 124.0 mmt which was well above the average trade guess.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a bearish USDA report yesterday that saw May futures closing well below the 40-day moving average that had been a level of support. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
Yesterday, CONAB released its estimate for Brazilian soybean production which saw it lowered to 146.5 mmt. A few hours later, the USDA released its estimate but made no changes from last month and kept the number steady at 155 mmt. This is a large discrepancy which should be narrowing as harvest is nearing completion.
US soybean ending stocks were increased to 340 mb from 315 mb last month, and this was above the average trade guess. World soybean ending stocks were unchanged, but trade was expecting them to fall.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago unchanged, but KC and Minneapolis slightly lower. Yesterday’s WASDE report was mostly neutral for wheat and held little in the way of surprises.
Weather for the winter wheat crop has been a concern as parts of Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma are expected to receive very light rain amounts over the next 7-days. Crop conditions are much better than last year, but still may struggle due to dryness.
Yesterday’s USDA report showed US wheat ending stocks increasing from last month to 698 mb which was slightly higher than the average trade guess. World wheat ending stocks were lowered just slightly.

Amanda Brill