TFM Morning Update 11-15-2022

Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

Wheat prices overnight are down 10 3/4 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil down 0.38.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 3/4 in SRW, up 6 1/4 in HRW, up 11 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 13 1/2; Soymeal down $0.14; Soyoil down 1.04.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 71 3/4 in SRW, down 29 in HRW, down 20 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 40 1/4; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal down $16.90; Soyoil up 2.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5% in SRW, up 19% in HRW, down -2% in HRS; Corn is up 10%; Soybeans up 8%; Soymeal down -1%; Soyoil up 35%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 21 yuan; Soymeal down 36; Soyoil down 94; Palm oil down 224; Corn down 21 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 82 ringgit (-1.99%) at 4030.There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,056 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 291 Soybeans; 39 Soyoil; 278 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

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Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 14 were: SRW Wheat down 6,086 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,655, Corn down 32,406, Soybeans down 1,428, Soymeal down 3,769, Soyoil down 1,479.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday, north Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated snow through Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated snow Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated snow showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered snow showers through Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Lake-effect snow Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Nov. 14 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 4,000 soyoil.


  • WHEAT SALE: Saudi Arabia’s state grains buyer SAGO on Monday said it had bought 1,009,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for April-June shipment next year. The tender closed on Friday.
  • WHEAT PURCHASE: Iraq bought 200,000 tonnes of U.S. origins wheat through direct purchase as part of its plan to secure enough wheat for its strategic reserves, the trade ministry spokesman told Reuters on Monday.


  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,500 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States
  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 16.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.


  • Spot basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to U.S. Gulf export terminals were flat to lower on Monday, even as futures slipped and freight costs ticked down, traders said.
    • CIF corn barge basis values continued to be mostly flat in the spot market, as domestic demand continued to eat up supplies, traders said.
    • The cash market for soybeans and corn held steady at U.S. Midwest processors, elevators and river terminals on Monday, grain dealers said, as farmers lacked interest in selling either commodity at current prices.
    • Two traders said there was some market talk that exporters were starting to route some grain via rail, rather than barge, due to domestic demand and competitive rail pricing.
    • Spot river freight costs ticked down on Monday, as grain shippers said they still need barges for later this month, brokers said.
    • Rainfall over the weekend helped some portions of the Mississippi River’s water levels, but record low water levels throughout the river system continue to affect drafts and tow sizes.
    • A wide swath of the U.S. is facing winter storm advisories this week, which are in effect for parts of Minnesota down to the Texas Panhandle, according to the National Weather Service.
    • The Kremlin said on Monday that talks with the United Nations last week on a deal safeguarding the shipment of grain from Ukrainian ports had been “fairly constructive.” Grain exports from Ukraine have dropped sharply this season.
    • CIF soybean barges loaded in November were bid steady at 175 cents over January. December barge bids were down 6 cents, at 149 cents over futures.
    • CIF corn barges loaded in November were bid at about 140 cents over December futures, steady from Friday.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans and corn held steady at U.S. Midwest processors, elevators and river terminals on Monday, grain dealers said.
    • Farmers were not showing much interest in booking deals for either commodity, a dealer in Ohio said.
    • Country movement of previously contracted corn and soybeans has been heavy in recent weeks as farmers progressed through harvest.
    • But deliveries have slowed as farmers finished up their harvest.
    • Growers have been reluctant throughout the fall to book fresh sales for recently harvested crops, dealers said.
  • Spot basis bids for corn rose at U.S. Midwest processors and elevators on Monday morning as farmers neared the end of harvest and the pace of deliveries of previously contracted supplies slowed.
    • Cash bids for corn were flat at the region’s river terminals and ethanol plants, grain dealers said.
    • Soybean bids were steady to firm at interior elevators, and flat at processors and river terminals.
  • Spot basis offers for soymeal were steady to firm at truck market processors around the U.S. Midwest on Monday, dealers said.
    • Offers were flat in the rail market.
    • Activity on the cash market was quiet, a Minnesota dealer said.
    • But demand was expected to rise by the middle of the week as end users begin placing orders for some surplus soymeal to last them through the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 24, an Iowa dealer said.

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn 93% Harvested, Soybeans 96% Harvested

  • Corn harvest 93% vs 87% last week, and 90% a year ago
  • Soybeans harvested 96% vs 94% last week, and 91% a year ago
  • Winter wheat 32% G/E vs 30% last week, and 46% a year ago
  • Winter wheat planted 96% vs 92% last week, and 94% a year ago
  • Winter wheat emerged 81% vs 73% last week, and 80% a year ago
  • Cotton harvested 71% vs 62% last week, and 64% a year ago

CROP SURVEY: US October Soybean Crush Seen at 186.2M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of six analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on Nov. 11-14.

  • Soybean crush seen 1.2% higher vs October of last year, and an increase of 17.8% vs a month ago
  • Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.512b lbs vs 1.835b a year earlier

The National Oilseed Processors Association is scheduled to release its monthly report on Nov. 15.

US Inspected 484k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.858m of Soybean

In week ending Nov. 10, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

  • Corn: 484k tons vs 233k the previous wk, 867k a yr ago
  • Wheat: 76k tons vs 182k the previous wk, 400k a yr ago
  • Soybeans: 1,858k tons vs 2,606k the previous wk, 2,434k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Nov. 10

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Nov. 10 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

  • Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 1.27m tons of the 1.86m total inspected
  • China was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

IHS Markit raises 2023 U.S. corn plantings forecast, document shows

Private analytics firm IHS Markit Agribusiness, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, on Monday projected an increase in U.S. corn plantings for 2023, according to portions of an IHS client note seen by Reuters.

The firm projected U.S. 2023 corn plantings at 91.968 million acres, the document showed, up some 25,000 acres from its October forecast and up from the 88.608 million corn acres that farmers planted in 2022.

IHS Markit forecast soybean plantings for 2023 at 88.515 million acres, unchanged from its October forecast but up from the 87.455 million acres seeded in 2022.

All-wheat plantings for 2023 were seen at 47.178 million acres, down some 155,000 acres from the firm’s month-ago figure but up from the 45.738 million acres planted for 2022.

Winter wheat plantings for 2023 were seen at 33.946 million acres, up from the 33.271 million acres planted for 2022.

Spring wheat plantings (excluding durum) for 2023 were seen at 11.450 million acres, up from the 10.835 million acres seeded in 2022.

Durum wheat plantings were seen at 1.782 million acres, up from the 1.632 million acres planted in 2022.

IHS Markit cut its U.S. 2023 all-cotton plantings forecast to 11.200 million acres, down 1.9 million acres from its October forecast and down from the 13.791 million total cotton acres that U.S. farmers planted in 2022.

Brazil 2022/23 Soybean Seeding 69% Done as of Nov. 10: AgRural

This compares with 57% a week earlier, and 78% a year ago, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

  • Drier conditions favored seeding in the South, where excessive moisture had delayed fieldwork
  • In Center-West, heat and dryness delayed the conclusion of soy seeding and germination past week
  • Summer corn seeding is 70% complete, compared with 63% a week earlier and 85% a year before

China’s Soybean Production to See Record Levels

China’s soybean production has hit a record high this year, with an expansion of the planting area and rising yields, Yang Baolong, president of the China Soybean Industry Association, said on Thursday at an international conference on oilseeds and fats.

Soybeans are an important feed crop as well as grain and oil crop in China.

In recent years, the country’s total demand for soybeans has continued to climb, while the planting area and scale has been limited, so it is imperative to enhance the production capacity for soybeans, Yang said.

At the same time, amid global uncertainties including the Russia-Ukraine crisis, international soybean prices have continued to rise. In order to ensure national food security, China is accelerating the domestic production of soybeans and reducing dependence on imports.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, domestic soybean production in 2022/23 is expected to reach 19.48 million tons, an increase of 18.8 percent year-on-year.

Russia Poised to Agree on Extending Black Sea Grain Deal

  • Kremlin has criticized UN-brokered pact, which expires Nov. 19
  • Agreement has allowed Ukraine foodstuff exports from region

Russia is expected to agree to extend a United Nations-brokered deal allowing exports of Ukrainian grain and other farm products from the Black Sea, ensuring a vital flow of foodstuffs to the world market.

Russia is likely to allow the deal to renew after its Nov. 19 expiration, according to four people familiar with the situation, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss matters which aren’t yet public. They didn’t specify whether Russia would seek to add new conditions in return for the extension or any other details.

A spokesperson for the joint body administering the deal from Istanbul said there’s nothing to confirm or announce at this stage. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will disclose its decision “in due time.”

Wheat futures fell as much as 2.1% in Chicago on the news. Paris wheat futures also dropped to the lowest since September.

Nov. 19 Deadline

The original pact, struck in late July with Turkey and Ukraine, revived seaborne exports from Ukraine after Russia blockaded the country’s ports following its invasion. It was brokered by Turkey and the UN and signed for an initial 120 days, which are due to run out Saturday. The deal provides for automatic extension for another 120 days unless one of the parties decides to pull out or modify it.

In tandem with the original agreement, the UN pledged to help ensure unimpeded exports of Russian food and fertilizers.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking after Group of 20 meetings in Bali, said the UN pledged that his government’s conditions for a deal would be met. Those include making sure Ukraine doesn’t use the export corridor for military purposes, enabling Russian grain and fertilizer shipments, allowing state-owned Rosselkhozbank to work in full, and “normal” insurance rates, he said.

The UN cited written guarantees given by the US and the European Union that they would provide “signals” to companies involved in the trade they won’t face sanctions risks, Lavrov said.

President Vladimir Putin had complained that the deal didn’t do enough to ease exports of Russian grains and fertilizer, even though they aren’t subject to sanctions and shipment volumes rose. He also argued that the supplies from Ukraine weren’t going to the poorest countries, although the UN had said the goal of the agreement was to lower prices by boosting supplies to the global market.

Ukraine has shipped more than 10 million tons of crops through the Black Sea since the deal came into force, led by corn and wheat cargoes. The grain has headed across Asia, Europe and Africa, including some cargoes chartered by the World Food Programme, the UN’s food-aid arm.

Last month, Russia briefly suspended its participation the deal, but after the UN and Turkey vowed to continue anyway, resumed observing it. On Monday, Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said talks last week in Geneva with the UN on extending it were “rather constructive,” but declined to comment on whether the deal would continue.

Ukraine said earlier this month that it was optimistic the pact would be extended.

Russia’s grain exports have been accelerating amid a bumper crop, while Ukraine’s shipments had slowed due to uncertainty over whether the deal would be extended.

India’s state wheat stock halves from a year ago

Indian wheat stocks held in government warehouses were half the level of a year ago on Nov. 1, government data showed on Monday, but inventories were marginally higher than the official target.

Wheat reserves in state stores totalled 21 million tonnes at the start of this month, down from 42 million tonnes on Nov. 1, 2021, but still slightly higher than the official target of 20.5 million tonnes for the quarter ending Dec. 31.

Wheat inventories at government-run granaries stood at 22.7 million tonnes on Oct. 1.

Lower state reserves could hobble the government’s efforts to release stocks to cool wheat prices, something it does regularly for bulk buyers such as flour and biscuit makers.

Wheat prices have surged in India despite the world’s second biggest producer of the grain implementing a ban on exports in May as it was stung by a sudden drop in crop yields.

Market arrivals from the previous harvest, meanwhile, have slowed to a trickle as farmers run down their stores.

Indian wheat prices are expected to remain elevated until the new-season crop arrives on the market early next year, growers and traders say.

If weather conditions remain favourable and temperatures do not rise abnormally during March and April’s harvest, India’s wheat output could bounce back to 2021’s level of 109.59 million tonnes given the good start to the planting season.

Indian farmers have planted wheat on 4.5 million hectares since Oct. 1, when the current sowing season began, up 9.7% from a year ago.

Local wheat prices jumped to a record 26,500 rupees ($324) a tonne on Thursday, up nearly 27% since the May ban on exports.

India is also weighing dropping a 40% tax on imports.

Ukraine grain exports down 30.6% to 15.1 mln T so far 2022/23 -ministry

Ukraine has exported almost 15.1 million tonnes of grain so far in the 2022/23 season, down 30.6% from the 21.8 million tonnes exported by the same stage of the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday.

Grain exports have slumped since Russia invaded Ukraine in February and closed off its neighbour’s Black Sea ports, driving up global food prices and prompting fears of shortages in Africa and the Middle East.

Three Black Sea ports were unblocked at the end of July under a deal between Moscow and Kyiv that was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey.

Ministry data showed that exports so far in the July 2022 to June 2023 season included 5.7 million tonnes of wheat, 8.1 million tonnes of corn and 1.2 million tonnes of barley.

The government has said Ukraine could harvest between 50 million and 52 million tonnes of grain this year, down from a record 86 million tonnes in 2021 because of the loss of land to Russian forces and lower yields.

Bayer estimates new GM soybean to reach 10% of Brazil’s 2022/23 planting area

Bayer AG’s BAYGn.DE agriculture unit in Brazil expects that its new genetically modified (GM) soybean Intacta2 Xtend will account for about 10% of the country’s total soy planting area in the 2022/23 harvest, the firm told Reuters.

The Intacta2 Xtend soybean, which tolerates the Dicamba herbicide and is resistant to insects, could be sowed in an area of around 4.3 million hectares (10.6 million acres) in 2022/23, compared with 243,000 hectares in the previous crop-year.

The expected expansion of the third generation soybean seed technology will follow after the seed was “tried and tested over the past two years in more than 500 areas across Brazil,” ensuring high yields, with dozens of producers recording averages of 100 60kg-bags per hectare, according to Bayer.

Some producers have reached more than 120 bags per hectare, said Rafael Mendes, commercial director of Intacta in Brazil’s Bayer agri division.

“Three digits in soybeans has always been a desire that very few farmers achieved in very small areas … such a significant number of customers surpassing this mark is confirmation that we are on the right track,” said Mendes.

The yield would be almost double that of Brazil’s average, estimated at 59 bags per hectare, according to the country’s food supply agency Conab.

United Nations calls for Russia to be responsible for reparation in Ukraine

The United Nations General Assembly on Monday called for Russia to be held accountable for its invasion of Ukraine, approving a resolution recognizing that Russia is responsible for reparation in the country.

The resolution, supported by 94 of the assembly’s 193 members, recognizes that Russia must be held accountable for violations of international law in or against Ukraine and “must bear the legal consequences of all of its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for the injury, including any damage, caused by such acts.”

General Assembly resolutions are nonbinding, but they carry political weight.

India registers over 34% YoY growth in edible oil imports to ₹1.57 lakh cr in 2021-22 season

India registered a growth of 34.18% in its edible oil import bill to ₹1.57 lakh crore during the oil year ending October 31, 2022. Further, in terms of volumes, the country garnered a rise of 6.85% to 140.3 lakh tonnes. In the oil year from 2020-21 (November – October), India’s edible oil imports came in at ₹1.17 lakh crore in value terms, while standing at around 131.3 lakh tonnes in volumes.

The start of 2022-23 season began with an opening stock of 24.55 lakh tonnes of edible oils in India as of November 1.

As per the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), in 2021-22 year, the country’s imports picked up gradually in the first two quarters, however, slowed down in the third quarter but gained traction in the fourth quarter.

SEA highlighted that the fourth quarter witnessed an upside due to the lifting of the ban on palm oil by Indonesia and a steep downturn in international prices — which bolstered buying from India.

As per the PTI report, SEA mentioned that high volatility in palm oil prices this year affected India’s palm oil buying.

The report also cited SEA that in March-April for a brief period, palm oil was as expensive as soft oils. Its availability was further affected in May-June by Indonesia’s decision to ban exports. As expected, India’s palm oil buying plunged and the import of soft oil rose. Thereby, there was a drop in palm oil import at 79.15 lakh tonnes during the 2021-22 oil year — as against 83.21 lakh tonnes in the previous year, on the other hand, soft oil imports increased to 61.15 lakh tonnes this year — compared to 48.12 lakh tonnes in the previous year.

On segment-wise performance, SEA data revealed that the import of RBD palmolein saw a more than 2-fold rise to 18.41 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 — from 6.86 lakh tonnes in the previous year. However, crude palm oil (CPO) imports came in at around 59.94 lakh tonnes — declining by 20% yoy, whereas crude palm kernel oil (CPKO) imports also plunged to 80,000 tonnes in the 2021-22 year compared to the previous 1.43 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 period.

In regards to soft oils, the data showed that soyabean oil imports jumped sharply to 41.71 lakh tonnes this year from 28.66 lakh tonnes in 2020-21, while sunflower oil imports rose gradually to 19.44 lakh tonnes compared to 18.94 lakh tonnes in the year 2020-21.

Brazilian biodiesel production, use expected to decline in 2022

Brazilian biodiesel production is expected to fall more than 7 percent this year, with biodiesel consumption down nearly 9 percent, according to a report filed with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Information Network. Biodiesel production capacity, however, is expected to increase.

Biodiesel production in Brazil is expected to reach 6.37 billion liters (1.68 billion gallons) this year, down from 6.87 billion liters in 2021 and 6.5 billion liters in 2020.

Biodiesel consumption is expected to fall to 6.335 billion liters in 2022, down from 6.928 billion liters in 2021 and 6.496 billion liters in 2020. The biodiesel blend rate is forecast at 10 percent this year, down from 11.15 percent last year and 11.3 percent in 2020.

Brazil trades very little biodiesel. Imports are expected to be at 20 million liters this year, compared to 2 million liters in 2021 and 1 million liters in 2020. Biodiesel exports are expected to reach 30 million liters this year, up from 8 million liters in 2021 and 4 million liters in 2022.

The country currently has an estimated 57 biodiesel refineries with a combined capacity of 13.259 billion liters, compared to 50 facilities with a combined 11.19 billion liters of capacity in 2021 and 51 facilities with a combined 9.792 billion liters of capacity in 2020. Capacity use is expected to reach 48 percent in 2022, down from 61.4 percent in 2021 and 66.4 percent in 2020.

Soybean oil is the primary biodiesel feedstock in Brazil, with 3.892 million metric tons expected to be consumed this year, followed by animal fat at 733,000 metric tons, palm oil at 147 million metric tons and used cooking oil at 104 million metric tons.

US Autumn Fertilizer Application Ramps Up With Needed Rainfall

With the harvest winding down, US farmers focused on applying fertilizers in early November. Potash, phosphates and ammonia moved to fields in parts of the Corn Belt, and recent rains should open up more drought-stricken areas. CF is canceling its ammonia contract with Mosaic to capture higher prices.

Monsoon Conditions May Develop in S. Hemisphere: Australia’s BoM

A strengthening pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation may increase the likelihood of monsoon conditions developing in the southern hemisphere, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said

  • This could increase the risk of tropical low/cyclone development over waters off northern Australia
  • There are yet to be any strong indications of the monsoon shifting over the Australian mainland
  • The influence of La Nina and warm waters around Australia means above-average rainfall is likely across much of northern Australia in the coming months

This commentary is provided by ADM Investor Services, a futures brokerage firm and wholly owned subsidiary of ADM Company. ADMIS has provided expert market analysis and price risk management strategies to commercial, institutional and individual traders for more than 50 years. Please visit us at or contact us at to learn more.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS.


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