TFM Morning Update 12-21-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after making new contract lows yesterday and posting the lowest close of the year.
Shipping issues globally have put pressure on futures with many routes in the Red Sea closed off due to attacks and shipping in the Panama Canal limited due to low water levels.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn between 800k and 1,500k tons with an average trade guess of 1,019k tons.
On Monday’s inspections report, out of the 35.5 mb of corn that was inspected, only 5.5 mb were inspected at the Gulf and 10 mb were out of the PNW showing the disruptive shipping issues.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower again this morning as rains fall in Brazil and the forecast remains friendly there. Soybean meal is unchanged to slightly higher while soybean oil is lower.
Brazil’s soybean output for 23/24 is now being called lower than last year’s at 156.5 mmt due to a 20% expected drop in production from the main growing state of Mato Grosso.
To offset some of Brazil’s losses, Argentinian soybean production is now called higher at 47.9 mmt due to improved soil moisture levels in key areas.
Expectations for today’s export sales report see soybean sales between 1,300 and 2,500k tons with an average guess of 1,984k. Considering that there was a flash sale every day last week, export numbers should be strong.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning as March Chicago wheat hugs the 100-day moving average and remains in a bull pennant formation which looks like may break higher technically.
There have not been any reported flash sales by China since two weeks ago, but the fact that wheat has remained off its lows despite the lack of sales has been encouraging.
Estimates for today’s export sales report are low with a lack of flash sales and are between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 425k tons.
SovEcon has raised its estimate for the Russian 2024 wheat harvest by 1.5 mmt to 91.3 mmt as a result of good weather conditions.

Amanda Brill