TFM Morning Update 12-22-2023

CORN

Corn futures are mixed this morning with slight gains in the front month and small losses in the deferred months. Yesterday’s export sales were supportive.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales falling slightly from the previous week to 1,014k tons from 1,419k tons, but still a strong number. Shipments were 40 mb which was higher than a week ago.
The railroad closures on the southern border remain a big issue as Mexico has been the primary buyer for US corn, and it has become increasingly difficult to export.
Argentina is now 69% complete with their soybean planting for 23/24 from 60% last week and continue to plant in favorable conditions with good soil moisture.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning but have posted losses for the last 3 consecutive days with nearly 38 cents lost in that time frame.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning as well with help from higher palm and crude oil, but crush margins have tightened lately.
Scattered showers are falling over central Brazil this morning, and the forecast into January still looks favorable for their soy crop. Production losses are still likely due to the early heat and drought.
New projections from Rabobank concerning the Brazilian soybean crop now see 23/24 production at 158 mmt compared to the initial forecast of 163 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning, and wheat has held strong at the 100-day moving average in general. Positive news could cause a breakout to the upside.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed very small amounts of wheat sold, especially compared to when China was making US purchases.
Argentina dealt with a storm last week that targeted main growing areas, but the wheat crop has reportedly not been damaged and production of 14.7 mmt is expected.
Wheat production in western Australia is expected to be cut by 40% compared to production the previous year. Unexpected frosts damaged the crop.

Amanda Brill