TFM Morning Update 12-29-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is on track for a very slight loss on the week. Due to thin trade, corn has traded in a relatively wide range.
Ending stocks are expected to have jumped from 1.36 bb in 22/23 to 2.13 bb in 23/24 which caused a large selloff in cash corn prices this year of 30%, the largest loss in the grain complex this year.
Second crop corn usually begins planting in Brazil between January and February and while there are still some concerns regarding soil moisture, the forecast has improved.
Yesterday, the funds were estimated to have sold 1,500 contracts and have a large net short position of around 156,000 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with soybean meal while oil hovers around unchanged. For the week, March soybeans are on track to post a small 2-cent gain.
This morning, some scattered showers are falling in central Brazil, but rain soaked southern Brazil is receiving the bulk of the rains today. The two-week forecast is still wet.
With soybean ending stocks at the lowest in 8 years, prices have held up better than corn, but cash soybeans are still on track for a 14% loss on the year due to a decline in demand.
Many analysts are expecting Brazilian production to be closer to 155 mmt compared to the USDA’s last guess of 161 mmt, but Argentina’s production is estimated higher with only 3% of the crop rated poorly.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning and are the only grain trading higher. March wheat is on track for around a 15-cent gain on the week.
Demand fell to extremely low levels for US wheat exports this year, and as a result, cash prices of KC wheat are on track for a 27% loss for the year.
Estimates for today’s export sales report for wheat are low again between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 342k tons. There were no flash sales of wheat this week.
Managed funds bought an estimated 4,000 contracts of wheat yesterday and currently hold a short position of around 50,000 contracts.

Amanda Brill