TFM Sunrise Update 10-16-19


Corn futures struggled overnight, losing 2-1/2 to 4 cents as the harvest season and a lack of fresh supportive news weighs on market sentiment. The vulnerability of the crude market due to uncertainty surrounding trade with China may also provide some headwinds for corn. Corn harvested is at 22% vs 35% 5-year average. Don’t look for a whole lot of new news on the horizon until the November report. That means technical maneuvering may be the main play in price movement. Dec corn ran into a ceiling of resistance at the contract’s 200-day Moving average so far this week at 4.01-1/2 and is now hovering around the 10-day at 3.91. Below there, the 20-day is situated at 3.84-1/4.


Bean futures sagged a bit more overnight, down 1-1/2 cents after a weak close yesterday as harvest pressure this week looks to increase. Harvest is 26% complete vs a 5-year average of 49%. Crop ratings indicated 54% good to excellent, up 1% from the previous week. Nov beans, at 9.32-1/2, though are in a sturdy up-trend, but need more export support to solidly test 9.50. For now, we can expect some back-filling on the charts with the contract’s 10-day moving average at 9.25-1/2 serving as near-term technical support. That upward trending line coincides with the daily lows formed since the beginning of October.


Wheat futures were narrowly mixed overnight in light volume. Prices sagged yesterday and will likely do so today on a lack of new positive news. Spring wheat harvest is at 94% complete vs a 5-year average of 100%. That means 3% was likely harvested at the beginning of last week as adverse rain and snow put a halt to any harvest after snow conditions developed on Thursday and Friday.


Cattle futures are called mixed to slightly higher on follow through. Futures have had a strong run. Cutout values moved higher yesterday with choice gaining 80 and select 2.15. That being said, the market will likely have some trouble finding new buyers today as cash cattle trade awaits the packers and sellers to make the first move on bids and offers. Smaller current show lists and next few week offerings of fed cattle will leave cattle owners in a stronger bargaining position.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher on a strong technical picture yesterday with sharp gains in futures led by the Dec contract on big export sales to China last week and hopes/expectations for more in the weeks ahead. This should underpin the market as big daily slaughter numbers are tallied. Yesterday’s figure was 490,000.


Carol Tillmann

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