May corn finished the week down 5-1/4 cents and Dec down 5 cents. At yesterday’s low May corn was down 16-1/4 cents on the week. Corn was supported today by a stronger energy sector. April ethanol was up 8 cents to 1.8850, crude was up 2.41 dollars to 60.97, and heating oil gained 6.18 cents to 1.8114. The rally in ethanol has the front month trading at it’s highest price since Dec 2014. Ethanol production fell 343,000 barrels from last week to 6.454 million barrels. Ethanol stocks came in at 21.809 million barrels, up 469,000 barrels from the prior week, yet still down 9.7% year-over-year.
Yesterday’s weekly US corn export sales were the 3rd highest on record. Total US export commitments now stand at 2.558 bil bu vs 1.213 bil last year. The USDA’s current export projection stands at 2.600 bil bu. Average trade expectations for this coming Wednesday’s Grain Stocks report: 7.767 bil bu vs 7.952 bil bu last year. Average trade expectations for Wednesday’s Prospective Plantings report: 93.208 mil vs 90.819 mil last year vs 92.000 mil USDA Feb Outlook forum estimate.
Weekly Highlights | Soybeans
May soybeans fell 15-3/4 cents on the week with nearly all of that decline coming from today’s 13-3/4 drop. Nov beans finished the week down 12-3/4 cents. Weakness in soybeans likely came from the oils markets, as Malaysian Palm oil was down 4.35% and May soybean oil fell the 2-1/2 cent limit to 52.48 in response. The bean oil market posted a nasty reversal on the week as it hit new multi-year highs on Monday and Tuesday, before dropping the 2-1/2 cent limit both yesterday and today. That might be the top for the bean oil market for now, which hasn’t seen a down month since April 2020. US export sales of soybeans were the lowest in 5 weeks at 101,822 mt. Total US export commitments now stand at 2.231 bil bu vs 1.313 bil bu last year. The USDA’s current export projection is 2.250 bil bu. Average trade expectations for this coming Wednesday’s Grain Stocks report: 1.543 bil bu vs 2.255 bil bu last year. Average trade expectations for Wednesday’s Prospective Plantings report: 89.996 mil vs 83.084 mil last year vs 90.000 mil USDA Feb Outlook forum estimate.
Weekly Highlights | Wheat
Class III and IV milk futures had two steady green sessions on both Thursday and Friday to finish the week on the right foot. After Thursday’s spot dairy session saw powder, butter, and cheese all close higher for the first time since March 2, there was more bidding on Friday. Cheese blocks added 2c to $1.72/lb Friday while barrels added a quarter of a cent to $1.4625/lb. Butter recovered another 3.75c and closed up at $1.7750/lb on 2 loads traded. This is a new high of the month for butter and is its best price since June 2020. US butter continues to find demand as global price levels are much higher.
The bounce in milk futures to end the week recovered most of the earlier week losses for class III. April class III finished 4c higher at the end of the week, while May class III was down 27c. Class IV had a really nice week of trade, aided by spot butter moving into its best price in months. Although volume is still lackluster in the futures market, the bids worked higher throughout the week in several contracts. April class IV jumped 43c this week to $15.19. May class IV added 33c this week to $15.46. The class IV milk contracts from July 2021 through December 2021 range between $16.06 and $16.81. They are still discounted pretty heavily to class III, but made up ground this week.
Author
Eric Fransen